Rachel Mendelson/Insider
- California Democrats are declaring to run for a once-in-a-generation race for a seat in the US Senate.
- Most of the politicians running, or who may declare, are middle-aged or older.
- Senators from California have lately served for 16 or more years, so the time is now to run.
We're only a month into 2023, and prominent California Democrats are already setting their sights and preparing to enter a once-in-a-generation race for a seat in the US Senate, where the winner could feasibly sit for the remainder of their career.
The Senator from California is a brass ring in liberal politics, with the holder of the seat representing more Americans than any other state and in a safe blue seat with little indication that will change. With that kind of power coming up for grabs, the race is going to attract the cream of the crop of California's deep bench of Democrats in a now-or-never contest to win it.
Sen. Dianne Feinstein is up for reelection in 2024. While she has yet to announce a decision on running — she told Raw Story she would wait until the election year to decide — two of California's most well-known representatives have already thrown their hats into the ring to run against or replace her: Reps. Adam Schiff and Katie Porter.
Schiff, who's been a member of the House since 2001, gained national prominence after leading the first impeachment against President Donald Trump. He stayed in the spotlight shortly after, sitting on the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack.
Porter's been in Congress for far less time than Schiff, joining the House in 2019, but has quickly made a name for herself by her pointed lines of questioning in congressional hearings.
Schiff and Porter entered the Senate race early. It's very likely that more politicians in the state run for Feinstein's seat as well. Possible candidates include longtime Rep. Barbara Lee, progressive Rep. Ro Khanna, Rep. Eric Swalwell, and even possibly current Gov. Gavin Newsom.
But why, especially with Feinstein yet to make a decision, are top California Democrats scrambling to enter this race?
Democrats likely don't expect Feinstein to run again with her advanced age and possibly deteriorating mental faculties, and if she does, they believe they can best her. But more importantly, this may be the last time a Senate seat becomes available for the duration of most of these candidates' political careers.
While it's possible that whoever wins in 2024 only serves one term, like some of Feinstein's predecessors, it's more believable they'll attempt to serve for multiple terms. Three of the four senators predating California's junior Sen. Alex Padilla each served for 16 years or more, with two — Sens. Barbara Boxer and Alan Cranston — serving for 24 years.
Schiff is 62 years old. Porter is 49. Khanna is 46. Lee is 76.
If the inherent advantages of incumbency hold, and the pattern of serving for three, four, or even five six-year terms continues in the state, then this may be the last time that these Senate hopefuls have in their careers to run for Senate unless they want to challenge Padilla, which none of them did in 2022.
For many of the leading Democratic politicians in California, it's now or never to advance their careers.
A national survey conducted at the end of January by YouGov of both Democrats and Republicans found that Schiff and Porter were rated as the most "favorable" among a list of some of California's most notable legislators. Schiff's time in the national spotlight may have also hurt him, however, as he was also rated as the most "unfavorable" politician on the list by just over a third of respondents.
And when solely polling Democrats, Schiff also led the pack, coming in at 61% "very" or "somewhat favorable" compared to Porter's 50%.
Schiff was also notably much more well-known than the rest of the politicians in the survey, with only 27% of Democrats unfamiliar with who he was — 40% or more of Democratic respondents said they were unfamiliar with each of the other lawmakers included in the survey.