Home prices could drop 10% 'in many places' this year, said a 50-year real-estate veteran who's witnessed many booms and busts

• One real-estate veteran sees the housing market cooling down further after a multiyear bull run.
• ReMax founder Dave Liniger said prices could fall as much as 10% in some areas.
• As prices fall, he added, there will also likely be a mass exodus of real-estate agents.

How low could US home prices go in 2023?

"We think there might be a 10% adjustment in many places," Dave Liniger, the founder and former head of the national real estate brokerage ReMax, told Insider on Wednesday. "It's going to be a slower year than last year."

Some areas, particularly those that witnessed high demand and stiff competition during the pandemic, have already seen prices plummet from their 2022 peaks. For instance, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, and Phoenix have all seen their median home prices decline by 10% or higher since the housing market peaked last year.

But there may be more room for prices to soften in major metros across the country, Liniger said, especially in California's more expensive cities.

Markets throughout Texas and Florida will remain competitive, Liniger added, as more residents relocate from the Midwest and Northeast to locales with more temperate weather and lower income and property taxes.

Liniger, who in 1973 established ReMax, which now has 140,000 real-estate agents in 110 countries, has witnessed numerous economic peaks and valleys over his 50-year career in real estate.

He says that things are different this time around — but for the better.

"Going into this market — as well as this recession that we're probably going into — we don't have this huge bulge of foreclosures and we don't have the huge amount of unqualified buyers," he said, referring to the early 2000s real-estate bubble that led to a tidal wave of lender repossessions and short sales after the market crashed in 2008. 

Real-estate agents may flee the industry

However, the housing bust of 2008 led to severe attrition of real-estate agents, and that exodus from the industry could be repeated this time around, Liniger said. 

Liniger said there are "probably at least 150,000 to 200,000" agents who have already left the business in the last nine months. While National Association of Realtors (NAR) data does not show a decline of that magnitude, monthly membership does appear to be on a downward trend as some agents return to former careers or take additional jobs. 

According to historic agent data from the NAR, the organization lost over 350,000 members between the pre-recession peak of 2006, when there were 1.35 million active agents, and the low in 2012, when that number fell to just under 1 million. In 2022, the NAR reported having 1.58 million members. 

While the prospects of easy commissions during the pandemic-era home-buying frenzy led many to pivot into a career in real estate, the industry has a notoriously high turnover rate. It can take years for new agents to learn the business of deal-making and develop necessary client relationships. 

Liniger said that prospective agents should have a big enough cash reserve to cover several months of living expenses while getting their real-estate careers off the ground.