A recession indicator is blaring louder than it did before the 2008 downturn - but 'no one seems to care'

• A New York Fed economic model shows the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are at 57%.
• That's worse than it was before 2008 and the highest it's been since the early 1980s, according to DataTrek Research.
• "This indicator's track record is perfect once it goes over 50%."

A recession indicator is flashing its worst warning in roughly four decades, according to DataTrek Research. 

In a Tuesday note, Nicholas Colas, cofounder of DataTrek Research, highlighted the New York Fed's Recession Probabilities model, which is based on the spread between the three-month and 10-year Treasury yields. 

Currently, the model shows the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are at 57%. That's the highest it's been since the late 1970s and early 1980s, Colas wrote, and higher than the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis.