The stock market has been transfixed by an enigmatic bond metric for the past year - one that's now flashing an unmistakably bullish signal

• The stock market has been highly sensitive to shifts in interest-rate volatility since the Fed started tightening policy last March.
• Falling bond-market volatility is now underpinning the rebounding investor confidence in equities.
• The MOVE Index of US bond swings has slid to lows last seen in March 2022, when the Fed started raising rates.

After a terrible 2022, the stock market has waltzed into this year in a surprisingly merry mood, seemingly downplaying the gloom-and-doom economic predictions from Wall Street.

And it's all down to one thing: the rising conviction that the worst is over on the uncertainty over inflation and interest rates.