Struggling US companies are deliberately exaggerating how much money they expect to make – and that could lead to an economic crash

• As many as 97% of companies that issue poorly-rated bonds fell short of earnings forecasts made in 2019, according to S&P Global.
• They've likely been deliberately exaggerating a key metric known as Ebitda.
• The juiced-up earnings increase the risk that the companies will fail to repay their debt.

Most low-rated bond issuers are probably exaggerating their earnings outlook, according to a new study – raising the risk of widespread defaults or even a "black swan"-type event.