The most closely watched recession indicator is telling markets that a downturn won't materialize for another 2 years, Credit Suisse chief stock strategist says

• The most closely watched recession indicator is saying a downturn won't happen for another two years.
• That's because the Treasury futures market suggests the yield curve inversion will last until 2026, Credit Suisse's Jonathan Golub said.
• Golub predicted a downturn to strike in August 2025 based on historical data.

The most closely watched recession indicator is telling markets that a downturn won't materialize for another two years, according to Credit Suisse's chief stock strategist Jonathan Golub.