Joshua Roberts/Reuters
- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's preferred bond-market indicator says a recession is on the way this year.
- It's the spread between the yield on three-month Treasury bills and their expected yield in 18 months.
- Powell has touted the predictive power of the gauge in previous statements.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's preferred bond-market metric is signaling that a recession is certain this year and that rate cuts are also coming.
The spread between the current yield on three-month Treasury bills and their expected yield in 18 months is now inverted by a record 134 basis points.