Wagner Group mercenaries are being butchered in Ukraine, but US intel expects them to keep stirring up trouble elsewhere on Russia's behalf

• The notorious Wagner Group has operated around the world on Russia's behalf for years.
• Wagner fighters have been accused of carrying out scores of atrocities in countries across Africa. 
• US intelligence expects this presence to continue, even as Wagner suffers heavy losses in Ukraine.

Mercenaries from the notorious Wagner Group, a Kremlin-linked private military company, have taken a beating on the battlefield in Ukraine. But that won't stop them from operating around the world on Russia's behalf, the US intelligence community believes.

For years, the Wagner Group has put boots on the ground in countries across Africa and the Middle East. The US intelligence community expects this presence to continue, according to a newly unclassified threat assessment report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Moscow "will continue to use its involvement and the activities of" the Wagner Group in place like the Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, and Syria to "increase its influence; try to undercut U.S. leadership; present itself as an indispensable mediator and security partner; and gain military access rights and economic opportunities," the report says. 

Russia's efforts to exert its influence won't be limited to these countries, either.

In the Western Hemisphere, the US intelligence community expects "Moscow will seek to maintain its influence by continuing its diplomatic overtures and economic engagements mostly with the countries that it sees as key players or close partners, including Argentina, Brazil, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela." The report did not say if Wagner would play a role in those operations.

Before Wagner's involvement in Ukraine became public, the shadowy organization represented Moscow's interest in operations around the world. The group, which was founded by Russia President Vladimir Putin's close ally Yevgeny Prigozhin, has been accused of carrying out various atrocities and human rights violations in Mali, Libya, and the Central African Republic.   

For example, an independent United Nations report on human rights violations in the Central African Republic concluded that Wagner fighters carried out extrajudicial killings, civilian executions, acts of torture, sexual violence, and other forms of abuse. 

US commandos have even squared off against Wagner before, engaging with the mercenaries in an intense firefight in Syria in 2018. 

But Wagner's existence and role in pursuing Russian interests has become much clearer since Putin launched his unprovoked war in Ukraine a little over a year ago, with Wagner mercenaries fighting alongside Russia's regular military in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region.

Wagner activities have been especially visible around the war-torn city of Bakhmut, where fighting has raged for months. At times, there have been signs of tension and other rifts between Wagner and Moscow, with the former frequently blasting the Kremlin for missteps in its war efforts. 

Like Russia's regular military, Wagner has endured heavy losses on the battlefield. The US estimates that the group has suffered over 30,000 casualties, including 9,000 killed in action. Many of those killed have been convicts recruited from Russian prisons.

Officials have previously said that Wagner fighters — including the convicts recruited by the group — have been shoved to the front lines to absorb heavy Ukrainian fire like sponges. Western intelligence suggested that up to half of the prisoners recruited by Wagner have been killed or wounded in battle.