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- Bitcoin could surge to $100,000 by the end of 2024, according to a Standard Chartered note.
- That's due to bank turmoil, bitcoin halving, and the expected end of Fed rate hikes, among other things.
- "While sources of uncertainty remain, we think the pathway to the USD 100,000 level is becoming clearer."
The crypto winter has melted away, and bitcoin is set to flourish, a Standard Chartered note forecasted on Monday.
The world's biggest digital currency by market cap could surge to $100,000 by the end of 2024, the bank said, representing a 268% increase from current levels.
"We see potential for Bitcoin to reach the USD 100,000 level by end-2024, as we believe the much-touted 'crypto winter' is finally over," wrote Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick.
One of the reasons for the bullish outlook is the turmoil caused by Silicon Valley Bank's collapse last month. As worries of a banking contagion spread, bitcoin re-established its use case as a "decentralized, trustless and scarce digital asset," according to the note.
At the same time, key rivals to bitcoin lost ground, especially stablecoins, some of which lost their peg to the US dollar. In fact, some of the assets that backed their value were held in SVB.
"Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has benefited from its status as a branded safe haven, a perceived relative store of value and a means of remittance," Kendrick added.
Standard Chartered now sees bitcoin's share of the total crypto market cap rising to the 50%-60% range, up from 45% today and from 40% before the SVB collapse.
In addition, the note said bitcoin's recent rebound back above $30,000 also represented a turnaround for crypto miners, who previously had seen mining margins get squeezed.
Bitcoin has since dipped below $30,000, but Kendrick said if prices remain well above mining costs ($15,000), miners will likely hold onto what they mine instead of selling.
"This creates price upside, in our view. In addition, with energy prices likely having peaked, the structural profitability backdrop for miners should improve, adding further upside," he wrote.
Bitcoin is also set to trade better in the future as the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, Kendrick said, noting that its correlation with the Nasdaq suggests the crypto should trade better if risk-on assets improve broadly.
Another tailwind is the coin's upcoming halving in 2024, which is when the reward given to miners is cut in half. This is to cap the supply of bitcoins, and has historically led to price increases.
Bitcoin could also see upswings thanks to regulatory changes that promote investor access to the market — such as the creation of digital asset ETFs and stablecoin regulation. Already, some proposals that have been passed in Europe hold positive implications on crypto volatility.
"While sources of uncertainty remain, we think the pathway to the USD 100,000 level is becoming clearer," Kendrick said.