A notorious recession indicator says that an economic downturn will begin this quarter, Bank of America says

• A classic recession indicator is flashing signs that the long-awaited downturn is about to start.
• BofA strategists pointed to two points in the yield curve that have inverted, moves typically followed by a recession.
• "Yield curve says recession starts now; markets await confirmation from labor market," the analysts wrote.  

The bond market's notorious recession indicator has flashed signs of an incoming downturn for months – and history says it's sending a warning to markets that a downturn could kick of this quarter, according to Bank of America strategists.