Good morning. I'm Phil Rosen — still recovering from last night's Succession episode. I'm actually writing to you not far from where HBO films many of the scenes in downtown Manhattan (fingers crossed I show up as an extra this season).
Speaking of jobs — Friday was a key day for labor-market data. Today we're taking a closer look.
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1. The job market is clearly starting to slow down. Friday's reading said the US added 236,000 jobs in March, which was a lower number than the prior month.
That reading fell just short of expectations, and marked the latest signal that the Fed's interest rates are beginning to have their intended effect.
The unemployment rate moved from 3.6% to 3.5%, and the labor force participation rate increased from 62.5% to 62.6%.
The data illustrated that the labor market is indeed cooling off, but it still points to a robust economy, ultimately.
Data from earlier in the week showed that job openings tumbled by 632,000 in February to 9.9 million, while jobless claims ticked up in the last week.
Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor, pointed out in a Twitter post that this signals "the first time since May 2021" that monthly job openings dipped below 10 million.
Mohamed El-Erian said March's jobs report was a win-win for both the stock market and the Fed.
"It's good to see good economic news," the top economist said in an interview with Bloomberg last week. He added that the numbers increase the likelihood the Fed makes a 25-basis-point hike in early May.
"We are making this transition where the stock market was obsessed with interest-rate risk to one that is concerned about credit risk."
What's your take on the latest job data? Tweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know.
In other news:
Andrew Kelly/Reuters
2. US stock futures are stable premarket. This week, keep an eye out for the latest consumer price index data, coming Wednesday, and producer price index data, due out Thursday. Here are the latest market moves.
3. On the docket: PriceSmart, Tilray Brands, and TSR, all reporting.
4. Buy into this batch of stocks today to bet on a rebound in the fairly unpunished financials sector. That's according to BMO Capital Markets. Strategists at the firm said it's time to buy the dip on these 13 names.
5. An under-the-radar stock market indicator is pointing to more gains ahead. Carson Group's Ryan Detrick said it would be abnormal to expect a down year for stocks this year, based on the latest reading of the December Low indicator. Get the full details.
6. Nobel economist Paul Krugman said President Vladimir Putin's plot to weaponize natural gas prices has failed. Moscow is looking like a mere imitation of a world superpower, he said, "with little behind its impressive facade."
7. The IMF forecasted the world economy will grow at the slowest rate in three decades. The group's head said Thursday that higher interest rates are weighing on demand in advanced economies around the world. That could drag the world's GDP to about 3% — the lowest medium-term growth outlook since 1990.
8. Morgan Stanley said there's no bull market just yet. Recent bank rescues won't kick off a fresh cycle, the firm's investment chief said, and it's still too soon to pile into tech names. Here's how to stay invested safely and book bigger profits from a future bull run.
9. Goldman Sachs named 36 stocks that can achieve double-digit earnings growth this year. For these names, the gains could still arrive even though the market is destined for flat profits, analysts said. See their full list here.
Markets Insider
10. Bitcoin has skyrocketed this year, and crypto fans just celebrated the mysterious inventor's birthday. Satoshi Nakamoto is said to be the inventor of the world's biggest token — but are there any clues as to who they really are?
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn or email prosen@insider.com.
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Dave Smith (@redletterdave) in Toronto.