Russian Defense Ministry/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
- Leaked documents maintain that Russia can fund its war on Ukraine for at least another year, the Washington Post reported.
- Moscow can lean into its sovereign wealth fund, higher corporate taxes, and increased imports.
- The IMF has said Russia's economy has proven much more resilient than expected amid sanctions.
Russia will be able to tap its sovereign wealth fund to help pay for its war in Ukraine even as sanctions batter its economy, according to documents leaked onto a Discord channel and reported by the Washington Post.
Moscow can rely on those reserves, as well as increased corporate taxes, imports, and business adaptability, to continue funding war in Ukraine for at least another year, the US intelligence assessment reads, per the Post.
The documents, however, do not address the latest round of sanctions or oil price ceilings in Europe, and remain limited in their ability to judge the overall effectiveness of sanctions. Funding the war is one matter, the report noted, but the documents don't cover the country's ability to continue fighting or recruiting soldiers.
Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials have shrugged off the impact of sanctions, but US intelligence found that Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov had drafted a letter in March for a response in the event of a "potentially embarrassing collapse" of state banks.
Additionally, the leaked documents said Russia's top spy agency raised concerns that domestic banks don't have enough foreign currency.
In any event, the International Monetary Fund has maintained that Russia's economy has proven more resilient than expected amid sanctions.
"After a sharp drop in the second quarter of last year, the economy bounced back strongly in the third and fourth quarters, limiting the 2022 drop in output to 2.1 percent," the group said in its April regional report. "The momentum from the second half of last year is carried over to this year, with growth projected at 0.7 percent. A large improvement in the terms of trade and resilient oil export volumes in the course drove oil and gas revenues to record highs and supported the economy in 2022."