Fairfax Media via Getty Images via Getty Images
- The stock market bubble bust will be only halfway over once the Fed starts cutting interest rates, according to Jeremy Grantham.
- "You tell me when the first interest rate cut is, and I will tell you when the second half of the pain is going to start," he said.
- Central bankers have raised rates by 475 basis points to lower inflation, which Grantham says risks pushing the US into recession.
The bust of the stock market bubble will only be halfway over when the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates, according to GMO founder Jeremy Grantham. He expects that to happen in late 2024.
The legendary investor — who's made his name predicting market crashes across multiple decades — predicts even more gloom ahead in the market. Previously, Grantham said stocks were in the "final phase" before crashing, and asset prices that ballooned in recent years could soon pop as the economy risks facing a steep recession.
Though some investors are looking for signs of the next bull market, that's the wrong way to think about stocks in the current environment, Grantham said. "Great Bubbles" in the stock market are different from typical bull and bear markets, meaning it's likely there's another round of pain ahead.
"Most of the decline in these great bear markets only happens after the first interest rate cut. So you tell me when the first interest rate cut is, and I will tell you when the second half of the pain is going to start," Grantham said in an interview with The Investor's Podcast on Friday.
Investors have already seen hefty losses over the last year amid rising inflation and higher interest rates, which have taken away the liquidity that previously caused asset prices to soar. Central bankers have raised interest rates 475 basis-points to tame inflation, a move that caused the S&P 500 to tank 20% in 2022, with the index now down 14% from its all-time-record in 2021.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said rates will stay elevated through the rest of this year, which is expected to hinder stock performance. But markets are pricing in a 33% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut as soon as July, according to the CME FedWatch tool, partly because interest rates at these levels could easily push the economy into recession.
Stocks could crash as much as 50% if the economy enters a severe recession, Grantham previously predicted. Though his forecasts are on the more bearish end of the spectrum, his view mirrors that of other Wall Street strategists, who say a recession and stock market downside are extremely likely in 2023.