Good morning, friends. Phil Rosen here. Today we're talking housing — but before we get to that, the big thing to watch today is President Joe Biden's meeting with congressional leaders.
The cadre will look to resolve the hotly-contested debt ceiling stalemate.
Experts have cautioned that the so-called "x date" — when the country tips into a catastrophic default — could loom mere weeks away.
It'd be untested waters, but odds are a US default isn't quite a bullish black swan for markets.
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The housing market seems to be taking a page from the labor market's playbook right now.
Daryl Fairweather, Redfin's chief economist took to Twitter last week to describe the sluggish sector:
"Homeowners are quiet quitting the housing market."
The phrase has become somewhat hackneyed over the last several months — it describes employees doing minimal possible work to skate by in their jobs — but applying it to Americans looking for homes is a new twist.
Fairweather made her comment in response to new home listings being down more than 20% from a year ago in April.
In effect, more and more homeowners are choosing to stay put with their low mortgage rates locked in, rather than trying to finance a new home at rates that are hovering around 20-year highs.
The key here is that would-be homebuyers looking to upgrade their homes have been sidelined.
That has a dual effect: Each homeowner that opts out of finding a new house also marks one less seller on the market, which contributes to tight inventory and high prices.
Remember, rates on the 30-year-fixed mortgage averaged an all-time low of 2.96% in 2021. Today those have more than doubled as the Fed's 10 consecutive interest rate hikes drive up borrowing costs for a wide range of loan products.
In March, the average mortgage payment for new applicants climbed 1.6% month-over-month, Mortgage Bankers Association data showed.
It's worth noting, too, that this April had 49% more homes available for sale — active listings — compared to a year ago. That's due mostly to high rates causing homes to sit on the market longer than usual, which leads to accumulating inventory.
Still, compared to April 2019, active listings are down roughly 50%.
How long do home listings stay on the market in your area? Tweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know.
In other news:
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2. US stock futures fall early Tuesday, as traders brace for a week of key inflation reports. April's consumer price index report is due Wednesday, while the producer price index data is scheduled for Thursday. Check out the latest market moves.
3. Earnings on deck: Airbnb, Twilio, and Aramco, all reporting.
4. This fund manager has outperformed 99% of his peers this year. He shared exactly how he finds undervalued gems that most people overlook — and named his seven favorite stocks to buy now.
5. Berkshire Hathaway's famed annual shareholder meeting just wrapped up. From the banking crisis and artificial intelligence to stock picks, here are the biggest takeaways.
6. China expanded its gold reserves for the sixth consecutive month in April. It's the latest sign of continued de-dollarization efforts among competing world powers, and brings Beijing's total gold holdings to 2,076 tons.
7. There's a record $5.3 trillion in cash on the sidelines right now. Money market fund deposits have ballooned recently, eclipsing the $500 billion of inflows seen after the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008 — and that could bode well for stocks.
8. Bank of America strategists recommended buying into this batch of healthcare stocks. Together they could have a 50% upside as the sector rallies, in BofA's view. Among them are names that could climb more than 100%.
9. It can seem impossible to buy property while living in a pricey city. But according to a Manhattan-based real estate investor, it's still possible with some creativity. She broke down four strategies for entering the market in dauntingly expensive places.
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10. Sliding beef sales dragged Tyson stock down double-digits. Shares of the meat producer tumbled Monday to its lowest in three years after executives slashed their outlook for an uncertain future.
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn or email prosen@insider.com.
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.