unemployment line
Applicants line up at a job fair at the Ocean Casino Resort in Atlantic City N.J., on April 11, 2022.
  • The Federal Reserve said last week that it no longer expects a recession in the US.
  • But unemployment will  spike above 4% over the next year, according to Vanguard's top economist Joe Davis.
  • "By that metric, it actually is a recession – because you have very modest job losses," he said.

Americans will start losing their jobs soon – and that will likely stop the Federal Reserve from achieving its dream no-recession scenario, according to Vanguard's top economist Joe Davis.