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- Second-quarter earnings have been upbeat so far – with almost 4 in 5 companies exceeding expectations.
- Earnings may continue to surpass Wall Street expectations, fueling the stock-market rally, according to State Street.
- Chief investment strategist Michael W. Arone lists five reasons why earnings may continue to top estimates.
US second-quarter earnings reports have shown an upbeat trend so far, with almost 4 in 5 companies exceeding Wall Street expectations as of earlier this week.
That may continue, supporting the buoyancy in the stock market, according to State Street, the the world's fourth largest asset manager. The benchmark S&P 500 index of US shares has advanced almost 3% in July, taking its year-to-date gains to 19%.
Michael W. Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street, lists five reasons why US corporate earnings may continue to beat estimates:
1. S&P 500 earnings to grow, excluding energy and materials
"Earnings for energy and materials are forecasted to contract YoY by 45% and 28%. If you exclude these two sectors that make up just 6.5% of the S&P 500, the index would be expected to grow earnings by about 1.5%," Arone wrote in a recent research note.
2. Any weakness is concentrated in 'largest cap names'
Based on median calculations, and not the mean, S&P 500 earnings per share would grow by just over 1%. The index is overweighted on mega-cap tech stocks, which have disproportionately driven growth. But analysts may demand too much of these giants, while overlooking the index's wider potential.
3. Revenues may be lower, but so are expectations
Arone believes that the market consensus for revenue declines across the board has set earnings expectations low – allowing companies to continue beating them.
"Companies are beating, and they will continue to beat," he wrote. "And, based on history, they're likely to beat in the 4 to 5% range in aggregate on average, possibly more."
4. Tech stocks are expected to outpace the market
Technology names are expected to outdo the market after "five quarters of weak EPS growth," ac ccording to the strategist.
Given the sheer size of this sector in market-cap terms – with a handful of mega-cap stocks currently driving S&P 500's returns – such outperformance "could be a major tailwind" for the market, Arone said.
5. Earnings growth to continue in Q3 and Q4
"Earnings growth is expected in the third and fourth quarters. If the forecasts are correct, Q2's earnings season will mark the bottom of this cycle — and from here on out, earnings could grow," Arone said.