A dog sits in an Amazon cardboard box shaped into an airplane
  • Cardboard-box sales have seen the biggest contraction since the Great Recession of 2008-2009.
  • Packaging Corp. of America just reported an almost 10% year-on-year slump in second-quarter shipments. 
  • Cardboard, often overlooked, can be a reliable economic indicator given its key role in e-commerce and the shipping of goods.

For many months now, a debate has been raging among experts whether the US economy is facing a recession, following the Federal Reserve's steepest interest-rate increases in four decades.

And they have used all kinds of gauges – from job-market numbers to the shape of the bond-yield curve – to argue in support of and against predictions for a potential downturn.