Wall Street is declaring victory too early — the US is still headed for a recession

Tue, 08/22/2023 - 05:26

A Bull's eye with a downward red arrow and flames reflecting from it — Wall Street and top economists are declaring an "all clear" on the US economy — but some experts warn that a recession is still on the way.
Tyler Le/Insider

There's a saying in markets that being early is being wrong. Given that maxim, it's fair to say that over the past two years pessimistic economists and market analysts have been wrong.

Bearish forecasters began to warn of a recession and corresponding stock-market selloff as early as April 2022. Take, for example, an October 2022 Reuters poll in which 65% of the economists it surveyed said a recession would arrive in the following 12 months. Things were supposed to get ugly, and soon.