The freight recession is finally letting up as the post-pandemic trucking slump reverses

• The freight recession that followed the pandemic demand spike is showing signs of easing. 
• A new report from Motive showed fewer carriers are leaving the trucking market, and freight rates have been relatively consistent for six months.
• Still, truck drivers saw fewer miles and hours driven in August, and diesel prices are climbing.

The freight recession that followed the pandemic-era delivery boom is showing signs of easing, with fewer carriers exiting the market in August and an uptick in carrier registration, according to a new report from Motive, a fleet operations platform.

Last month saw the lowest net carrier exits since the first quarter, with 24% fewer leaving the market compared to July. August's contraction in authorized carriers was the smallest seen since March. 

Plus, registrations climbed in part thanks to consistent freight rates over the last six months. Carrier starts saw a surprising 17% jump in August compared to the prior month.

Another driver of this could be a stabilization of the market, too, as many smaller carriers have already been driven out of the market.

In July, trucking employment and retail demand had declined, with an increasing number of big carriers leaving the market, such as Yellow filing for bankruptcy. At the time that had suggested the freight recession wouldn't be limited to only smaller-name fleets, Motive said.

Now, even with key metrics showing positive momentum, researchers cautioned that any optimism should be tempered to account for potential headwinds. 

"Drivers saw fewer hours and miles driven in August, and rising diesel prices increasing credit costs are likely to have a disproportionate impact on smaller fleets," Motive said.

The jump in new carrier registrations, for one, should not be taken as the beginning of a trend, in Motive's view, because the impact of rising energy costs has yet to materialize fully.

Meanwhile, retail visits in August continued to show an upward overall trend, according to Motive's Big Box Retail Index, which measures trucking visits to warehouses for the top 50 retailers in the US.

The gauge is still down from the July 4th holiday spike, but it climbed 8.1% compared to June, and the year-over-year decline softened. 

In addition to high diesel prices, elevated interest rates will make the trucking landscape difficult, as operating costs will stay high and put pressure on smaller fleets, Motive said.

"Overall," Motive added, "we expect the contraction of the market to continue into early 2024, with volumes following similar trends to 2019 and carrier numbers still being severely inflated due to the 2021 bump."