Surging oil prices could sour soft landing hopes, but it won't spark a crisis like the 1970s, market veteran says

• Market analyst Ed Yardeni increased the odds of a recession from 15% to 25% by next year's end.
• Rising oil prices motivated the adjusted outlook, as they could pressure inflation higher.
• But don't expect a repeat of the 1970s thanks to the productivity boom, he added.

Market analyst Ed Yardeni raised the odds of a recession before the end of 2024, citing higher oil prices and widening deficits.

In July, Yardeni had lowered the likelihood of a recession, but the 30% spike in oil since late June has given him reason to reassess. 

"Today, in response to several new developments, we are raising the odds of a recession before the end of next year from 15% to 25%," he wrote in a Monday note.