AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall
- Abortion and the preservation of democracy emerged as critical issues in the 2022 midterm elections.
- And the issues appear to have resonated among a bloc of swing-state white voters, boosting Democrats.
- As a result, Trump's Electoral College edge appears to have diminished significantly ahead of 2024.
In the lead-up to the 2022 midterms, national surveys showed Democrats in a tough spot, as President Joe Biden's middling poll numbers were expected to weigh down the party's candidates across the country on Election night.
Many observers said it would be virtually impossible for Democrats to hold the House, with Senate control also looking shaky as the party contended with outside money being showered on many GOP candidates.
The election results defied the conventional wisdom.
While Democrats went on to lose the House, they did so narrowly; the party went on to carry critical Senate races in Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, which allowed them to retain their majority.
A look at the results revealed an critical dynamic at a play: Democrats were competitive with white voters in battleground states including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Republicans performed stronger with nonwhite voters in noncompetitive blue-leaning states including California and New York.
Based on state polling and surveys from The New York Times/Siena College, former President Donald Trump's Electoral College edge may have diminished significantly as a result of Democratic resiliency in key swing states.
While Trump in 2020 was able to win over more nonwhite voters, it was concentrated in states where he either wasn't going to win (California and New York) or where he was already winning (Florida and Texas).
In 2022, voters were animated by the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, which drove many college-educated female voters to the Democratic Party, even as some of them still had reservations about Biden's job performance.
Abortion has remained a potent Democratic weapon at the ballot box ahead of 2024, as evidenced by some Republicans looking to "rebrand" their antiabortion stance away from the "pro-life" wording, per NBC News.
And many voters may have also been influenced by the Democratic message of fighting against threats to democracy, which was a sleeper issue in swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — which were all targeted by Trump's 2020 legal team as they challenged scores of legally-cast votes.
So while many national polls are showing the 2024 race virtually tied between Biden and Trump — should the two men win their respective party nominations — Democrats have made headway in cutting into any GOP advantages in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. All three states were won by Trump in 2016 but flipped to Biden in 2020, and they are essential to the president's calculus for winning reelection next year.
Trump's 2016 wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were fueled by strong support among white-working class voters, many of whom had defected from previously backing Democratic presidential candidates. But with Democrats not collapsing with white voters in those states either last year or in recent statewide polling, Trump's Electoral College edge may either be severely curtailed or obliterated by the time the 2024 election rolls around.