Wagner fighters, some of the best in the Russian ranks, are back in Ukraine, but they're not as much of a threat without Prigozhin running the show, Kyiv says

• After a long hiatus, Wagner Group mercenaries are back on the battlefield, Ukraine's military says.
• Around 500 fighters from Belarus will help Russian combat operations around Bakhmut.
• Officials and experts say they're not likely to have much battlefield impact without Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Wagner Group mercenaries are back in Ukraine after a lengthy absence from the battlefield. These fighters appear to be some of the best within the Russian ranks, but the threat is still low without their leader, Kyiv's military says.

It's been several months since Wagner mercenaries last saw combat in eastern Ukraine. After pulling back from the front lines following the capture of Bakhmut, they staged a short-lived and chaotic mutiny against Russia's defense ministry. In the aftermath, they were either cast into exile in Belarus or offered the opportunity to sign contracts with Moscow's military. And then, as things seemed to be settling down, they lost their ruthless leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash. 

Prigozhin's death at the end of August, exactly two months after the mutiny, led to speculation over what would happen to the mercenaries, especially as Moscow moved to assume more oversight of their activities around the world. US officials said on multiple occasions after the rebellion that Wagner was no longer supporting combat operations in Ukraine.   

But now, around 500 mercenaries have returned to eastern Ukraine and will be sent into combat on behalf of Russia, Illya Yevlash, a spokesperson for Kyiv's military, said on Wednesday. Insider could not independently verify his assertion.

Yevlash told Ukrainian broadcaster RBC-Ukraine that these fighters came from Belarus, where there were around 8,000 mercenaries living in exile at a military camp there and training the country's military. The camp is being disbanded, Yevlash said, as some Wagner fighters are being sent to Africa — where Wagner has a foothold supporting several governments — and others are being pushed to sign contracts with the Russian defense ministry.

In doing this, the fighters are returning to Ukraine to "participate in combat operations, both as instructors and military personnel," Yevlash said. 

"However, he added. "they will not pose a significant threat like they did before because they don't have their leader, Prigozhin. These individuals are indeed among the most well-trained in the Russian army, but they will not become a game-changer." 

Conflict analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank that closely tracks the war, noted that Wagner forces are deploying to Bakhmut, a war-torn city in eastern Ukraine where the mercenaries fought for months at a tremendous human cost. They captured the city in May, but amid the bloody campaign led to tensions flared between Wagner and the regular Russian military, ultimately leading to the mutiny. 

"Ukrainian and Russian confirmations of some former Wagner Group personnel deploying to the Bakhmut area indicate that the Wagner Group is struggling to cohesively reform around new leadership," the ISW experts wrote in a Wednesday assessment of the current battlefield situation. 

"The piecemeal deployment of former Wagner personnel to any area of the frontline is unlikely to generate any significant strategic or even localized effects on the battlefield in Ukraine," the experts said. 

Ukrainian forces have managed to advance in areas around Bakhmut amid their ongoing counteroffensive, and there are promising signs in the southern Zaporizhzhia region as well. Kyiv's troops recently liberated two villages near Bakhmut — Klishchiivka and Andriivka — and have made small territorial gains along the northwest and southwest flanks of the city.

Aerial photographs of the newly liberated villages, which were published on Wednesday by Ukraine's defense ministry, show complete destruction, with homes reduced to nothing but rubble. 

Some Ukrainian government officials echoed the assessments from both Yevlash and ISW that the return of Wagner fighters is unlikely to generate any significant battlefield impact.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, suggested in a social media post on Wednesday that Wagner does not even really exist as a private military company anymore because Prigozhin is dead and Russian military leadership has moved to consolidate control of the organization.  

"Today, there are only former militants of the terrorist group who have scattered in all directions: Africa, civilian and criminal life in the regions of Russia, or a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry as an agreement to play the last chord, plugging the Russian hole in the Bakhmut direction for a short time," Podolyak said.