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Consumer spending US economy markets
A resilient consumer has helped stave off a recession so far, but that may not last.

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  • Goldman Sachs' 12-month recession probability is hovering at 15%, about the "historical unconditional average."
  • A WSJ survey showed the consensus probability of a downturn in the next year dipped below 50% for the first time since mid-2022.
  • Here's how recession expectations have changed over the last 18 months.

Recession calls have evolved over the last two years, with forecasters digesting a wide range of conflicting signals about what might be next for the US economy. 

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economy, Markets, mi-exclusive, wall-street, Investors, goldman-sachs, Bankers, Economists, Recession, recession-outlook, downturn, economic-outlook, federal-reserve, jerome-powell, policymakers, rate-hikes, interest-rates
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Economists think odds of a recession in the next year have fallen below 50%. Th…