Doug Armand/Getty Images
- Hamas' attack on Israel last Saturday boosted the appeal of so-called "safe havens", which investors flock to during times of uncertainty.
- Gold opened up an early lead over the dollar and Treasury bonds last week, racking up gains of 5%.
- But the previous metal is unlikely to carry on rising, according to analysts.
Investors have flocked to so-called "safe-haven" assets since Hamas attacked Israel last weekend – and it's gold that's emerged as an early winner from the geopolitical uncertainty.
The precious metal has jumped over 5% over the past five trading sessions, with its price rising to around $1,930 per Troy ounce as of Monday.
Close behind gold are bonds, which have rebounded from one of the worst market crashes in history to post steady gains.
The iShares' 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, which trades under the ticker TLT and tracks longer-term debt prices, climbed over 3% higher last week.
Lagging both of those is the dollar.
The US Dollar Index, which gauges the greenback's strength against six other currencies including the euro and the Japanese yen, only eked out a weekly gain thanks to a strong Friday trading session and is still up less than 1% since the crisis started.
In times of geopolitical uncertainty, investors tend to pivot away from riskier assets like stocks toward safe havens, which are perceived to offer more price stability.
Gold has been uniquely positioned to benefit from the threat of a conflict in the Middle East because of bonds' own struggles and the risk that the dollar will soon be undercut by the Federal Reserve deciding to wind down its interest-rate hiking campaign. When borrowing costs stop rising, the buck becomes less attractive to foreign investors looking for higher yields.
But some of the yellow metal's price surge has been driven by short-sellers covering their positions – which means it could give up some of its gains this week, according to analysts.
Another sign that demand could be tepid is that funds tracking the price of gold, like iShares' Gold Trust, barely moved last week despite the spike in interest in the metal itself.
"Gold spiked 5.5% last week but with safe haven and not least short covering from speculators being the main drivers, the risk of a correction remains, especially with ETF investors not yet showing any signs of involvement following months of selling," Saxo Bank's strategy team said Monday in a research note.