A tumultuous withdrawal from Afghanistan gave independents a reason to ditch Biden. The conflict in Israel and Gaza could do the same thing for Democrats.

• Biden's disapproval ratings did not surpass his approval ratings until he withdrew from Afghanistan.
• The flip, in large part, happened specifically because a large amount of independents opposed.
• Similarly, Democrats have increasingly disapproved of Biden since Hamas attacked Israel.

For the first seven months of President Joe Biden's presidency, the chief executive coasted in national approval polls.