Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve.
  • A new Bloomberg model shows a better-than-50% chance a recession could begin this year.
  • The model's leaning says a recession could officially be declared in 2024, starting in late 2023. 
  • Rising pressures such as gas prices and student loans could push the model's scale toward recession.

The US economy is walking a fine line, and just about anything could push it into a recession or save it with a soft landing.