Why IPAs are about to get more expensive

• The climate crisis is reducing European hop production, crucial for IPA beers.
• New research predicts the yield of already high-demand aroma hops to drop between 4% and 18% by 2050.
• Europe hop farmers face challenges adapting to rising temperatures and droughts.

Inflation is still affecting the prices of many goods, but now the climate crisis is about to make it worse for some of the most popular beers — IPAs.

A new study in Nature from researchers at the Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences shows that the rise in temperatures in Europe has caused a decline in the production of hops.

This is important for the beer industry because the ever-popular India Pale Ales (IPAs) and their related off-shoots depend on aroma hops for their unique scents and bitter taste.

Beer makers were already facing increased costs from things like transportation, electricity, labor, and other ingredients. Add in this drop in hops supply, combined with its growing demand for hops in the beer industry and the rise in microbreweries, the hops' cost will increase and, subsequently, the beer's price for the consumers. The alternative is for breweries to turn to a lower-quality hop.

However, the high-quality hops needed for IPAs to achieve their desired bitterness and aromas are already more expensive, so these beers are typically more costly than traditional styles. According to Untappd, a social network and guide for beer enthusiasts, the average 16-ounce draft for the average American IPA is $6.88 compared to $4.94 for the average light beer.

Using data since 1970, the researchers looked at how hop production has changed in Germany, the Czech Republic, and Slovenia as temperatures have increased. The researchers reported that these areas are home to 90% of the world's hop-growing regions.

According to their models, hop yield will decrease between 4 and 18% by 2050. This decline in production is linked to hops ripening approximately 20 days earlier, causing a decrease in harvest by as much as 19.4%, depending on the specific area observed.

The chemical makeup of the hops is also being impacted by a declining level of alpha acid, which gives the hops a bitter taste. The model projects a 20 to 31% drop in alpha acid content by 2050, further impacting the quality.

Farmers are adapting, but it may not be enough

The aroma hops are harvested once a year and most often in small areas of Europe with specific environmental conditions. This specificity in habitat makes hops more susceptible to the climate crisis than crops grown in areas with more variable conditions.

As the climate changes, areas that were once home to hops production become less hospitable, but new areas could open up. As the study's authors noted, many hop farmers have already been forced to adapt by moving crops to higher elevations.

The downside to this potential solution is the ideal lands may already be used for other purposes and available space could be limited. And even then, there might not be enough land. The authors concluded that to compensate for the loss of harvest and alpha acid content, the area used to grow aroma hops must expand by 20% compared to the current production area.

Farmers have also combatted rising temperatures and droughts by building irrigation systems, changing the orientation and spacing of rows, or even switching to more resistant varieties.

The good news for American breweries is that the production of hops in the US is on the rise. Once restricted to Yakima Valley, a small area in eastern Washington, hop farms are starting to pop up in other areas, like the East Coast.

The authors concluded by calling on "urgent adaptation measures to stabilize international market chains," noting that these changes "will affect the economics and prospects" for European hop production.

In other words, changes are needed to keep prices from going up.

But until high temperatures and droughts slow and high-quality hops become more abundant, that IPA will cost more in the near future.