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- The Fed has likely paused rate hikes due to its own economic uncertainty, Steve Eisman told CNBC.
- Unless a bad recession hits, rates will stay elevated for a while as the Fed fears resurging inflation.
- Eisman added that it's too soon to start loading up on Treasurys, as rates won't fall in the near-term.
Investors are likely not the only ones baffled by conflicting economic data, said Steve Eisman, best known for predicting the 2008 market crash.
In fact, the economy's mixed signals are also disorienting for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and a possible reason why interest rates were left unchanged in the latest FOMC meeting, he suggested on CNBC.
"I listened to Powell's press conference and I think he's just as confused by all the different data points as everybody else," said Eisman, who was portrayed by actor Steve Carrell in "The Big Short" film. "Maybe that's why he wants to pause, because he doesn't know what to do."
For example, consumer spending has been robust, but borrowing costs have jumped, threatening demand for big-ticket items like homes and cars, he said.
On Wednesday, Powell noted the impact on housing of high mortgage rates. But he also said balance sheets among households and small businesses may be stronger than originally thought.
While markets believe the Fed's hiking cycle is over, Eisman dismissed the possibility of near-term interest rate cuts. Unless a "very bad" recession takes hold, the Fed is more incentivized to keep rates where they are to avoid a repeat of the 1980s when the Fed loosened too soon and allowed inflation to reaccelerate, he added.
Meanwhile, expectations of a recession led Jeffrey Gundlach to say last month that investors should buy long-dated Treasurys with prices set to rebound.
When asked Thursday about buying bonds on expectations rates will come down, Eisman replied, "I think it's way too early to be making that kind of prediction. I wouldn't be doing that."