The founder of the market's most famous recession indicator says the Fed overdid it with rate hikes and a downturn is still coming

• The Fed overestimated inflation and went too far with rate hikes, Duke finance professor Campbell Harvey said.
• He's the founder of the market's most famous recession indicator: the inverted yield curve.
• Now the curve is uninverting, which happened before each of the last four recessions, Harvey told CNBC.

This week, yields in the bond market have taken a breather after the Federal Reserve decided to skip a rate hike again. But that doesn't mean we've dodged a recession, according to a finance professor at Duke.