Here's what it would take for the stock market to notch a new high before year-end

• It's possible for the S&P 500 to return to its July high of 4,589 if bond yields keep falling, DataTrek says. 
• Investors need to see the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% for equities to rally.
• Forward earnings expectations have climbed since July, but interest rates are much higher since then.

Stocks have rallied to start November, but the market's path back to—and ultimately beyond—this summer's high is obstructed by one big hurdle. 

The S&P 500 touched a high of 4,589 in July, but a note on Monday from DataTrek Research says that bond yields need to come down a lot more for stocks to reclaim that level by the end of the year.