San Francisco Police Department via AP
- Shoplifting rates are below pre-pandemic levels across the US, according to new crime-data analysis.
- While rates are up in New York and Los Angeles, they're down in Seattle and San Francisco.
- Meanwhile, incidents appear to be increasingly expensive — and violent — in several cities.
The US is facing an unprecedented and worsening epidemic of retail crime — or so it would seem based on what politicians, business executives, and the media tell us.
But a Council on Criminal Justice analysis of crime data sheds new light on the largely anecdotal narrative around retail crime, and the findings aren't likely to satisfy anyone who has an opinion on the subject.
In short, the question of whether shoplifting is getting worse depends a lot on how you define "worse."
In terms of the number of incidents and the dollar value of stolen merchandise (about $40 billion last year), the problem is bigger than ever. But the problem also seems more complex than ever.
Across 24 major US cities, CCJ found the average rate of reported shoplifting incidents is down from a pre-pandemic trend of about 45 per 100,000 residents to about 35 since 2020.
The report's authors note that crime stats can be influenced by how retailers report incidents and by loss-prevention strategies that change from year to year.
"Because these data rely on reported incidents, they almost certainly undercount total shoplifting," they wrote.
When comparing incidents this year with 2019's numbers, shoplifting is indeed worse in seven of the 24 cities studied. But the crime is down by double-digit percentages in more than half of them. New York and Los Angeles led the pack with the largest increases in shoplifting (more than 60%) from 2019 to 2023. But San Francisco and Seattle (both frequently portrayed as crime hubs) have shown notable declines of 5% and 20%, respectively.
In other words, apart from New York and Los Angeles, shoplifting incidents are at or below levels long considered "normal" in the US.
But wait, there's a catch: Even though fewer crimes are occurring, the value of stolen items is ticking up in five of the cities, including New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. In fact, New York's numbers are so large, they skew the national averages.
From 2019 to 2021, the median value of shoplifted goods has climbed from $74 to $99. While less than $573 worth of merchandise was stolen in 90% of incidents in 2019, that figure climbed to $757 in 2021. Each of those figures are adjusted to 2022 dollars for consistent comparison.
Similarly, the percentage of shoplifting incidents that meet the felony threshold — typically when $1,000 or more worth of merchandise is stolen — has doubled in the past four years, from 7.1% in June 2019 to 15.1% in June 2023.
More worryingly for executives, store employees, and shoppers is that physical violence is on the rise. Target, for example, closed nine stores after CEO Brian Cornell said in August that shoplifting incidents "involving violence or threats of violence" had more than doubled since January.
Target's increase is unusually large, but the number of assaults in retail stores last year was about 10% above the previous high in 2019. And although the actual number of shoplifting-related assaults changed little from 2019 to 2021, the overall decline in shoplifting meant those incidents represented a larger proportion of the total.
So, is shoplifting getting better or worse?
Nonviolent shoplifting has come down, while violent shoplifters are sticking around, and certainly violence is a concern for retailers, workers, and shoppers.