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- Investors should get ready for a topsy-turvy 2024, according to Société Générale.
- The S&P 500 will climb higher in the first quarter but then plunge 12%, the French bank said.
- That drop will put the benchmark index in "buy the dip" territory by the end of the year.
Get ready for an up-and-down 2024 where the S&P 500 nears record highs, plunges, and then stages another comeback, Société Générale says.
In its outlook for the year ahead published Monday, the French bank said it expects the benchmark index to climb to 4,750 points over the first three months of the year, which would put it within touching distance of the all-time high of 4,796 it reached in January 2022.
The gauge of large-cap US stock prices will then slide 12% to 4,200 in mid-2024 as a mild recession hits the US, before rallying back to 4,750 over the fourth quarter as the Federal Reserve starts slashing interest rates, SocGen added.
"By the end of the year, we expect to see rate cuts by the Fed of 150 basis points, a downturn in GDP growth and clarity on the political election cycle," head of US equity strategy Manish Kabra wrote. "The S&P 500 should be in 'buy-the-dip' territory, as leading indicators for profits continue to improve."
"Yet, the journey to the end of the year should be far from smooth, as we expect a mild recession in the middle of the year, a credit market sell-off in 2Q and ongoing quantitative tightening," he added.
The S&P 500 traded at 4,556 as of Wednesday's closing bell. It's climbed 19% year-to-date, lifted by the stellar performance of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" Big Tech stocks and investors' hope that the Fed is gearing up to cut borrowing costs.
Kabra isn't the only top Wall Street strategists who's predicted the index could flirt with record highs next year.
Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said earlier this month that he's expecting the S&P 500 to trade at 4,700 points by the end of 2024.
Meanwhile, both Bank of America and RBC Capital Markets have set year-end targets of 5,000, which would see the gauge comfortably clear its previous all-time highs.