Ukraine's new ATACMS shook Russia's attack helicopter fleet, but experts say Russian Ka-52 'Alligators' are still a threat to the front lines

• Ukraine's first ATACMS strike hit Russia's attack helicopter fleet, destroying several Ka-52 "Alligators."
• Western intelligence and experts said the strikes may force a relocation of Moscow's key assets. 
• Experts and milbloggers suggest that the attack helicopters are still a threat to the front lines.

Ukraine's first strike using its MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, dealt a harsh blow to the Russian attack helicopter fleet. But more than a month later, Moscow's Ka-52 "Alligators" still remain a threat above the battlefield.

The October 17 attacks took out an estimated 14 helicopters — including several of the formidable Ka-52s — at two Russian airbases inside occupied Ukrainian territory. In the aftermath, Western intelligence and experts suggested that the strikes — and Kyiv's new arsenal of the powerful ATACMS — may force Moscow to pull back its operating bases and vulnerable military assets from the front lines to better protect the helicopters from future Ukrainian assaults. 

Satellite imagery collected and analyzed by a Ukrainian reserve officer and milblogger who publishes commentary under the pseudonym "Tatarigami UA," appears to indicate that Russia still maintains a fleet of dozens of operational Ka-52s. In a thread posted on November 17 to X, the platform formally known as Twitter, Tatarigami UA outlined the various bases used by Moscow for its helicopter operations.  

"Both the Ka-52 and numerous Mi-28 helicopters continue to pose a significant threat to Ukrainian forces along the frontline," the officer wrote in the thread. The ability of the helicopters to use air-to-surface and anti-tank missiles helps extend the reach of the aircraft so they can operate beyond the range of Ukraine's short-range air-defense systems, the officer added. 

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute think tank, backed up the assessment that the attack helicopters are very much in use. "Ka-52 helicopters are still operating, and they are still a serious problem," he wrote on X.

"Russia began operating helicopters from FARPs soon after the ATACMS strike," Lee said, referring to what's known as a forward arming (or area) and refueling point, which is a NATO term for a location where aircraft can be resupplied near the front lines. "Just because you don't see videos of them does not mean they are not there," he added.

Russia's Ka-52 helicopters proved to be a headache for Ukrainian forces during the much-anticipated summer counteroffensive in southern Ukraine. In June, Britain's defense ministry said Moscow had reinforced its attack helicopter force in the region, and the following month it said the aircraft had emerged as one of the most influential weapons in the area.

"Given that Russian fixed-wing close-air support to date has been extremely poor, Russian defensive lines have become increasingly reliant on rotary-wing support in the face of the Ukrainian offensive," the UK wrote in an intelligence update a few days after the October 17 ATACMS strikes. 

Ukraine debuted the ATACMS after secretly obtaining the weapon from the US, which marked the culmination of months of advocacy from Kyiv, American lawmakers, and some military experts. The attacks on the Russian airbases that day specifically involved the ATACMS M39 variant, which is a deadly cluster missile that's packed with 950 anti-personnel and anti-materiel, or APAM, M74 bomblets and has a range of around 100 miles. 

Experts say the M39 variant is effective against unprotected and dispersed targets, like helicopters on a tarmac. Unlike a unitary warhead, the submunitions released mid-flight by the cluster missile can be dispersed and cause lots of damage across a large area. The occasionally indiscriminate nature of cluster munitions makes them particularly deadly for civilian populations, which has led the majority of nations to ban their use.