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- Markets are betting the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as early 2024.
- But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently dampened hopes for cuts and left open the possibility of more hikes.
- Other central bankers have indicated that the tightening cycle has ended.
Wall Street largely anticipates that the Federal Reserve has finished its interest rate-hiking cycle, and markets are betting central bankers will begin easing policy soon.
On Tuesday, traders priced in a 55.7% probability of a quarter-point cut by March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool,
Meanwhile, strategists at ING forecasted the Fed will cut interest rates six times next year, while Barclays expects four reductions in 2024.
Here are seven quotes from Fed officials since the last FOMC decision and ahead of the December 12-13 meeting.
1. Christopher Waller, Federal Reserve board governor, November 28: If inflation continues to cool "for several more months — I don't know how long that might be — three months, four months, five months — that we feel confident that inflation is really down and on its way, you could then start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower."
2. Tom Barkin, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president, November 29: "If inflation comes down naturally and smoothly, awesome. There's no particular need to do anything with interest rates if inflation steps down. But if inflation is going to flare back up, I think you want to have the option of doing more on rates."
3. Raphael Bostic, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president, November 29: "I don't think we've seen the full effects of restrictive policy, another reason I think we'll see further cooling of economic activity and inflation."
4. Mary Daly, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president, November 30: "I'm not thinking about rate cuts at all right now. I'm thinking about whether we have enough tightening in the system and are sufficiently restrictive to restore price stability. Discussion about interest rate cuts is not particularly helpful at the moment. We should continue to focus on lowering inflation."
5. John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York president, November 30: "My assessment is that we are at, or near, the peak level of the target range of the federal funds rate."
6. Williams, November 30: "I expect it will be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance for quite some time."
7. Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, December 1: "It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease. We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so."