The inventor of the market's most famous recession indicator is confident the inverted yield curve is accurately calling a slowdown in 2024

• An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession since 1969. 
• The inventor of the famed indicator said it is accurately predicting a downturn this year. 
• When the yield curve inverted in November 2022, he said it was a false signal. 

Wall Street has ramped up its soft-landing calls for 2024, but a renowned economic expert who popularized the most famous recession indicator in markets says to expect a downturn this year. 

Campbell Harvey is a Canadian economist and researcher at Duke University whose work showed that, for decades, an inverted yield curve — that is, when short-term Treasury yields exceed the yield on longer-term government bonds — has preceded as US recession.