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- The man behind Wall Street's favorite recession indicator expects the US economy to slow this year.
- Consumers are almost out of savings, and the Fed needs to cut rates to limit the fallout, he says.
- Duke professor Campbell Harvey discovered an inverted yield curve accurately predicts recessions.
The man behind the market's most reliable recession indicator says the US could suffer a mild downturn this year, and the Federal Reserve should slash interest rates to lessen the pain ahead.