Traders signal offers in the Five-Year Treasury Note Options pit at the Chicago Board of Trade
The professor who invented Wall Street's favorite recession indicator expects a US slowdown this year.
  • The man behind Wall Street's favorite recession indicator expects the US economy to slow this year.
  • Consumers are almost out of savings, and the Fed needs to cut rates to limit the fallout, he says.
  • Duke professor Campbell Harvey discovered an inverted yield curve accurately predicts recessions.

The man behind the market's most reliable recession indicator says the US could suffer a mild downturn this year, and the Federal Reserve should slash interest rates to lessen the pain ahead.