Iran's new jet-powered exploding drones in Russian hands could put even more stress on Ukraine's best air defenses

• Russia is suspected of having used a new Iranian exploding drone in Ukraine, though it's not confirmed.
• The weapon, Iran's jet-powered Shahed-238, is believed to offer a speed boost over the Shahed-136 loitering munition.
• With these new drones, Moscow could create more headaches for Ukraine's air defenses, experts say.

Months after Iran unveiled a new, jet-powered version of its Shahed loitering munitions, suspicions are growing that Russia is in possession of the explosive weapon — and may have already used a variant of it in Ukraine.

The jet engine-powered Shahed-238 is a significant upgrade in speed and altitude over the propeller-driven versions of these Iranian-made drones that Russia has used to attack Ukrainian cities for over a year. This new capability in the hands of the Russian military could create headaches for Kyiv's air defenses by reducing reaction time, putting additional pressure on already-strained systems, experts told Business Insider.

Iran has built a vast arsenal of one-way attack drones, but perhaps the most well-known of these weapons is the Shahed-136, which have been employed in Ukraine and across the Middle East.

Although the Shahed-136 is often called a drone, it's technically a loitering munition, meaning it can lurk above a target before flying into it and detonating. It's a small system that's powered by a propeller and can carry an explosive payload of up to an estimated 110 pounds.

Tehran debuted variants of the new jet-powered Shahed-238 in November, but many of its capabilities remain unknown or unconfirmed. A Russian general told state media in early December that the system can travel at speeds of nearly 500 mph — which would make it several times faster than its predecessor and put it on par with some cruise missiles— and that Moscow would soon be fielding the new version, the Kyiv Post reported.

In early January, some evidence began to emerge that Russia had employed at least one Shahed-238 in Ukraine that was shot down by Kyiv's forces.

Photographs said to be of the wreckage of the drone were shared by multiple open-source intelligence accounts on Monday, The War Zone reported later that day, although it's unclear where or when the interception may have occurred, if it did at all. Business Insider was not able to independently verify these claims.

Neither Ukraine nor Russia has officially confirmed the presence of the new Shahed-238 on the battlefield. But if Russia has it and the drone is in use there, experts say it could put significant pressure on Kyiv's formidable — but overworked — air-defense network.

Ukraine has had great success in shooting down Russia's Shahed-136 drones because it could employ cheap and mobile air-defense options — like truck-mounted guns — against a system that has an estimated cruising speed of just over 100 mph and makes an audible buzzing sound. Kyiv has often been able to reserve its more expensive and higher-end options — like the MIM-104 Patriots — for other threats, like cruise and ballistic missiles.

A faster jet engine-powered Shahed-238 means Ukraine would have a lot less time to react than it does when faced with the Shahed-136. This could force Kyiv to use more costly air-defense methods — such as its more advanced, Western-provided air-defense systems — to shoot down the threat, especially if Russia acquires a lot of these new exploding drones, said Samuel Bendett, an expert on drones and various Russian military capabilities at the Center for Naval Analyses think tank.

The US and its NATO allies have outfitted Ukraine with a whole slew of air-defense systems, but Kyiv has repeatedly said additional capabilities remain a priority as the country continues to face aerial bombardments by Russia. Between Dec. 29 and Jan. 2 alone, Moscow launched some 500 missiles and drones, killing dozens of people and injuring hundreds more.

"Our defenders of the sky are doing everything possible to protect the state," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a Jan. 4 address to the nation, adding that officials "are doing everything they can to ensure the delivery of additional air defense systems and missiles."

"This is the number one priority," he added.

Indeed, while Ukraine's air-defense capabilities are significantly more advanced now than they were nearly two years ago at the start of the full-scale invasion, fears are mounting that Kyiv could soon exhaust its stockpile of interceptor missiles and ammunition as future Western security assistance, particularly that provided by the US, remains in flux.

If Ukraine has to turn to its higher-end systems to take down the new Shahed-238s, then Kyiv could easily be looking at higher levels of expenses for air defense, "which will be difficult to sustain in the long term," said Shaan Shaikh, an expert on drones and air defense at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

The Shahed-238 could basically act as a substitute for a cruise missile — just cheaper, but with potentially more maneuverability and a smaller warhead, Shaikh said, adding that it's becoming more difficult to discern the differences between drones and cruise missile characteristics. Transcending these categories is one way for a military to find gaps in its adversary's air defenses.

And such is the danger of the Shahed-238. The drone could operate in "this in-between section," Shaikh said, which raises questions of how much damage Ukraine may suffer in the interim before it's able to develop effective countermeasures.

But Shaikh and Bendett said the Shahed-238 could still have potential disadvantages. The drone may be more expensive than the Shahed-136, which is estimated to cost around $20,000, and it may be easier to detect thanks to its heat signature. Jet fuel also burns quickly and the drone can likely only carry a limited amount, potentially decreasing the range from its predecessors.

Bendett said Iran will likely be taking notes on how its drones are used on the battlefield in Ukraine. This could have far-reaching implications, given the vast network of militia groups that Tehran supports in the Middle East, which has been roiled by violence for months since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war.

"We have to think what this means for other conflicts as well," he said.

The suspected transfer of Shahed-238s from Iran to Russia also underscores the deepening economic and military relationship that has emerged between Tehran and Moscow since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. US officials have repeatedly condemned the warming ties between the two pariah countries, calling them "harmful" to Kyiv, the Middle East, and the broader international community.