Starbucks Now Hiring sign
A 'We're Hiring!' sign is displayed at a Starbucks on Hollywood Boulevard on June 23, 2021 in Los Angeles, California.
  • The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index has declined for 20 consecutive months.
  • Never has such a decline in the index happened without the economy going into a recession.
  • Ned David Research explained why the commonly cited LEI indicator has "cried wolf."

One of the most commonly cited recession indicators is the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and it's been flashing red for nearly two years.