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- Vladimir Putin is starting to express his anger toward NATO nations Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania.
- His rhetoric sounds an awful lot like his statements before Russia attacked Ukraine.
- Russia's emerging narrative toward the Baltics sets the stage for "future escalations," the ISW said.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin has been intensifying his rhetoric against the Baltic states, setting the stage for potential "future escalations" with the eastern NATO members, the Institute for Study of War said on Tuesday.
The Washington-based think tank reported that Putin on Tuesday claimed that Latvia and other Baltic nations were "simply throwing out" ethnic Russian people from their borders.
His complaint refers to changes in Latvia's immigration law that require Russians living as permanent residents in the country to pass a Latvian language test if they want to stay there. Around 1,200 Russians were identified for deportation in December because they didn't renew their residency permits under the new rules.
"You see, these are very serious things that directly affect our national security," Putin said, according to state news agency RIA Novosti.
The ISW said in a daily assessment that Putin's rhetoric "notably amplified a long-standing Kremlin effort to set information conditions for future escalations against the Baltic countries, likely as part of his wider effort to weaken NATO."
The think tank said it hasn't found any indication yet that Russia plans to attack the Baltics soon. However, the ISW warned that Putin may be laying the groundwork for "future aggressive Russian actions abroad under the pretext of protecting its 'compatriots.'"
Putin's comment on Tuesday echoes similar remarks he made about Ukraine before launching his unprovoked invasion.
One of Russia's claimed reasons for the attack was that Kyiv was committing "genocide" against ethnic Russians as it fought pro-Kremlin rebels in the Donbas, despite a lack of evidence for such a claim.
Like the Baltics, Ukraine is a former Soviet republic, and Putin has "trivialized the sovereignty" of these countries while adopting an "expansive definition of Russia's sovereignty," the ISW said.
But unlike Ukraine, the Baltic nations — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — are all NATO members.
Undermining their sovereignty and portraying them as bullies toward Russians would fit within Putin's ultimate goal of weakening NATO, the ISW said.
The think tank said it previously assessed that Putin's aim in invading Ukraine was to destabilize NATO instead of defending a NATO attack against Russia as he has stated.