China can't use civilian ships to invade Taiwan just yet, but it's getting there, says former US intelligence officer

• China's military has been conducting large-scale exercises with civilian ships, per an analyst.
• At least 39 merchant vessels were recorded supporting the Chinese navy in 2023, wrote Michael Dahm.
• They're likely preparing for a potential Taiwan invasion, but aren't ready for one yet, Dahm wrote.

China's fleet of civilian ships earmarked for war is unlikely to successfully invade Taiwan until at least 2030. Still, Beijing is making steady progress on that front, according to a senior analyst.