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- Regional bank stocks are feeling the bite of the unfurling commercial property crisis in a rout that's giving SVB-collapse flashbacks.
- Commercial real estate loans are going sour with huge defaults on the horizon, pummeling banks from New York to Tokyo.
- Regional banks are a lot more exposed and vulnerable to commercial real estate loans.
Plummeting regional bank stocks are giving investors déjà vu, but the underlying problem this time around is the commercial property crisis.
On Wednesday, the KBW Nasdaq Regional Bank index saw its worst day since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, ending the day down by 6%. The decline was led by New York Bancorp, which tumbled nearly 40% on Wednesday after posting a fourth-quarter loss of $260 million due to of sour commercial real estate loans.
US property losses also sent Tokyo-based Agora bank tumbling 20%, Bloomberg reported. And Deutsche Bank AG in Europe is quadrupling its provisions, or which is money set aside to anticipate future losses, to $123 million. Even New York Bancorp set aside a huge chunk of its $552 million provisions for its commercial real estate portfolio.
The mayhem in regional banks reflects the malaise that has gripped America's commercial property sector, which has a $2.2 trillion mountain of debt due in 2027. Real estate experts have called the market a "slow moving train wreck" with a possible $700 billion default looming on the horizon.
A pandemic that wiped out demand for office spaces, combined with higher interest rates that have made borrowing money more expensive, has delivered a one-two punch to the sector. Now, landlords are struggling to pay back their loans. That's a problem for US banks — especially smaller ones.
Regional banks are a lot more vulnerable to a crumbling commercial property sector. Unlike behemoths such as JPMorgan, smaller banks can't lean on large credit card portfolios or investment banking branches to buffer any losses. At the same time, they're also four times more exposed to commercial real estate loans than big banks.
One report found CRE loans make up 28.7% of a small bank's portfolio, as opposed to a larger bank's 6.5%.
And the pressure on real estate loans is pushing lenders away from the market. Recent loan sales show banks are trying to limit their exposure to the property sector. From Florida to California, banks like Amerant Bank and Fidelity Bancorp Funding are shedding their property loan portfolios and staving off commercial real estate loans offered by other banking executives.