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- Over 100,000 Michigan voters chose "uncommitted" over Biden in Tuesday's Democratic primary.
- It's part of a campaign to make Biden take voters' concerns about Israel seriously.
- The "uncommitted" vote share was higher than in any recent primary election.
Over 100,000 Michigan voters marked "uncommitted" on their ballots in Tuesday's Democratic primary.
That accounts for 13.3% of the vote, far more than either of President Joe Biden's long-shot primary challengers, Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota.
Biden won just over 81% of the vote, according to Decision Desk HQ.
Organizers with "Listen to Michigan" — an effort to get voters to withhold their support for Biden over US support for Israel — had set a far more modest goal of 10,000 votes, roughly the same as Donald Trump's 10,700 vote margin of victory in 2016.
To put Tuesday's results into perspective, it's worth considering recent Democratic primaries in the state.
Roughly 20,000 votes have gone 'uncommitted' in recent cycles
The last two cycles: 19,106 people voted "uncommitted" in 2020, while 21,601 did so in 2016. In both years, there were competitive primary elections, and "uncommitted" accounted for a small sliver, between 1% and 2% of the vote.
2012: As President Barack Obama sought reelection, 20,833 voters chose "uncommitted," accounting for 10.7% of the vote.
Officials with the Biden campaign have pointed toward this result, given that it's the last time a Democratic president faced an uncompetitive reelection.
"The final uncommitted total was in line with what uncommitted received last time an incumbent President was on the ballot," a Biden campaign spokesperson told Business Insider. "And that year there was no organized effort."
In terms of percentage, Tuesday's result is only a little bit better than 2012, but in terms of raw numbers, it's more than 5 times that year's result.
"The overall turnout was good news for Biden," said the Biden spokesperson. "800,000 people voting for President in a noncompetitive primary is big."
2008: The "uncommitted" vote share was far higher this year — 238,168 votes, or 40% overall — because Obama did not appear on the ballot amid a competitive race against Hillary Clinton.
The Democratic National Committee had chosen to strip the state of its delegates after the local party scheduled its primary ahead of the Nevada and South Carolina primaries, violating the committee's rules.
Obama and other candidates withdrew their names from the ballot in the state, but many of his supporters chose "uncommitted" over Clinton.
Michigan is a crucial battleground state — and it's been close in recent years
In 2020, Biden defeated Trump by more than 150,000 votes.
But in 2016, the result was far closer, with Trump eking out a 10,700 vote win over Clinton.
In contrast to previous cycles, the "uncommitted" vote this year was in large part the result of a concerted campaign to send a political message — and organizers have made clear that at least some portion of those voters plan to continue withholding their support for Biden until a lasting cease-fire occurs in Israel.
In a statement on Tuesday night, Layla Elabed — the leader of the Listen to Michigan effort and the younger sister of Rep. Rashida Tlaib — signaled that Tuesday night wasn't the end.
"Our delegation plans to hold the Democratic nominee accountable to our community's anti-war agenda at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago," said Elabed. "See you there."
Michigan is relatively unique, given that it has a large Arab American and Muslim-American population around the city of Dearborn. Many of those voters are not just critical of Israel, but may have family members in Gaza who have been killed in recent months.
Biden has a path to victory in November without winning Michigan, but it's not a state he or his campaign can entirely count out.
While previous "uncommitted" voters may have been expressing general dissatisfaction with their choices, this year is different: a large bloc of voters are telling Biden that they want a specific thing from him, and if he is unable to deliver it, they may continue to hold out.
If that happens, Biden could lose Michigan to Trump in November.