Thomson Reuters
- Nearly two-thirds of strategists polled by Reuters say an inverted yield curve has diminished as a reliable recession indicator.
- The yield curve has been inverted for 20 months without a recession striking.
- Any recession the curve is predicting has been stalled by resilient US economic strength.
Prolonged economic momentum may have snapped the inverted yield curve's spot-on precision in forecasting recessions, as a majority of strategists polled by Reuters now see its reliability diminished.
22 of 34 surveyed bond experts consider its predictive capabilities as weaker than in the past.