AP Photo/Reba Saldanha
- Former President Trump's robust showing on Super Tuesday led to Nikki Haley ending her campaign.
- But there were warning signs for Trump in the results, as he faltered in populous suburbs in N.C. and Va.
- Many suburban voters began drifting away from the GOP in 2016, costing the party critical seats in recent cycles.
Former President Donald Trump had a commanding victory on Super Tuesday, winning 14 of the 15 states that held a Republican primary or caucus.
It was a huge show of force against former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who left the race on Wednesday but had sought to make the argument that the GOP needed to turn the page from the Trump years and embark on a new era of politics.
While most Republican voters were not sold on Haley's argument, as she only won Vermont on Tuesday, one of Trump's most significant problems from both his 2016 and 2020 campaigns was evident in key states: his lagging support in suburban communities.
While Trump easily won the North Carolina primary — capturing nearly 74% of the vote to Haley's 23% by winning big in rural and exurban communities across the state — his vote share was significantly less robust in critical counties that are filled with the sort of suburban voters that the party began to shed in 2016.
In Mecklenburg County, which contains Charlotte and many of its most populous suburbs, Trump only won by 7 points (52%-45%).
The pattern repeated itself in Wake County, which is anchored by the state capital of Raleigh and its suburbs. While Trump won Wake by 20 points (58%-38%), it was well below his roughly 51-point edge over Haley statewide.
In recent years, Mecklenburg and Wake have leaned Democratic on the presidential level; Trump didn't clear the 40% mark in the general election in Mecklenburg or Wake in either 2016 or 2020.
Trump still won North Carolina over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and now-President Joe Biden in 2016 and 2020, respectively. But the victories were narrow, as he carried the state by less than 4 percentage points in 2016 and by only 1.34 percentage points in 2020.
Wake and Mecklenburg are the two most populous counties in North Carolina, so Trump losing a significant share of suburban voters has a huge impact on the overall vote even with his rural advantage — and many voters showed that they're still hesitant about backing the ex-president.
In neighboring Virginia — which has leaned Democratic on the presidential level since 2008 but also elected GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin in 2021 — Trump also underperformed in suburban areas including Loudoun County and Henrico County.
While Trump won Virginia by 28 points (63%-35%) in the primary, he underperformed significantly in affluent Loudoun County, a Northern Virginia suburb where he only edged out Haley 52%-46%. And in Henrico County, a former GOP stronghold that is still filled with many suburban voters who once fully embraced the party's candidates, Trump only won by 11 points (55%-44%).
Though Trump came out on top, he still lost significant shares of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents.
In the fall, many of these voters, concerned about abortion rights and leery of Trump's criminal charges, will either vote for Biden or potentially back a third-party candidate.
Trump's tepid suburban support, which cost Republicans their House majority in the 2018 midterms and contributed to his ouster from the White House in 2020, could shut him out from the Oval Office for good this fall.