- Western intelligence says its almost certain that Russia's new T-14 tank isn't fighting in Ukraine.
- It says Moscow is likely trying to avoid the "reputational damage" of losing one in battle.
- It's a story similar to that of another much-touted Russian asset — the Su-57 fifth-gen fighter jet.
Russia has touted the new T-14 Armata as a highly advanced and formidable tank for dominating the modern battlefield, yet there has been no evidence it has seen action in Ukraine, or that it has even been deployed there for that matter.
Moscow has also sidelined another much-celebrated asset — the supposedly fifth-generation Su-57 fighter jet, raising the question of why the Russian military would leave top weapons behind. The answer, per a new Western intelligence assessment, is that the Kremlin likely fears the reputational damage of losing one of its T-14s in combat.
The Russians have described the next-generation T-14 main battle tank, which was introduced in 2015, as "cutting-edge" weaponry, featuring new technology and automated functions like a remotely operated cannon, sophisticated sensors, onboard drones, and defenses against anti-tank weapons.
The emergence of the Armata initially sparked concerns among some Western analysts who worried that it might rival NATO tanks like the M1 Abrams, Leopard 2 or Challenger 2. But years into its development, the T-14 program remains plagued by problems such as manufacturing issues, delays, and a reduction in fleet size, all while the tank's reliability has also been called into question.
Russia's 1st Guards Tank Army was supposed to receive the T-14 in 2021, and Moscow was even considering deploying the tanks to Ukraine at one point in early 2023. But it is "highly unlikely" that a delivery to any front-line unit has occurred, the British defense ministry said in a Tuesday intelligence update.
"To date, it is almost certain that the T-14 Armata MBT has not been deployed to Ukraine," the update continued. "This is highly likely due to the potential reputational damage of losing the 'prestige' vehicle in combat and the requirement to produce greater quantities of MBTs which can only be satisfied by other variants."
This assessment directly contradicts claims made by Russian state media throughout the war that the T-14s had been operating in Ukraine. The examples of said participation ranged from reports of brief stints on the front line to firing from a distance without engaging in direct assault operations.
Kyiv has denied Moscow's claims about the tank's involvement and said it hasn't seen any Armatas in battle — consistent with the UK's assessment.
On Monday, the head of a Russian state-owned weapons manufacturer, Rostec, revealed that Moscow is ultimately unlikely to use the tanks in Ukraine because they are far too costly, despite these weapons supposedly being more advanced and functional than Moscow's existing inventory of tanks.
The relationship between the T-14 and the Ukraine war bears similar hallmarks to what British intelligence and aviation experts have previously said about the Su-57, which is Russia's highly touted first attempt at a fifth-generation fighter jet, the kind of aircraft that should be able to make a difference in a war like Ukraine.
Known by NATO as the "Felon," the Su-57 was delivered to Moscow's military in 2020, but there are only a very small number of these aircraft in its arsenal. There is also only very limited evidence that the fighter jet has seen action in Ukraine, mainly just Russian reports that the plane has fired missiles from positions considerably far from the front lines.
"Russia is highly likely prioritizing avoiding the reputational damage, reduced export prospects, and the compromise of sensitive technology which would come from any loss" of the Su-57 over Ukraine, Britain's defense ministry said in an early 2023 intelligence update on the war.
Indeed, were Russia to lose one of its Su-57s to Ukraine's highly capable air-defense systems, it would strike a blow to the fighter's reputation and potentially place its much-needed foreign sales in jeopardy, aviation experts previously told Business Insider.
The experts also said that any loss of the aircraft would result in sensitive technologies eventually falling right into NATO hands and suggested that Moscow's reluctance to rely more on the Felon indicates a lack of confidence in its purported stealth capabilities.
It's unclear if there may be similar concerns about the capabilities of the T-14 Armata, but a previous intelligence update noted than Russian commanders in Ukraine would be "unlikely to trust" the new tank in battle.