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- Polling for the 2024 election has shown Biden losing ground with younger voters to Trump.
- Gen Z and Millenials sided with Biden by ~20 percentage points in 2020, but that lead may be gone.
- Younger voters are historically less likely to vote than older-aged ones.
In a presidential race expected to be as tight as ever, polling increasingly shows younger voters shifting toward former President Donald Trump. But the group has historically been fickle and difficult to get to the polls, which the Republican Party has made increasingly difficult.
A survey conducted by Marist Poll in late March showed that 2 percentage points more Gen Z and Millenial-aged voters said they'd vote for President Joe Trump over Biden in a two-person race. A recent New York Times/Siena College Poll showed a similar result, with Biden winning over 1 percentage point more of Gen Z and Trump 1 percentage point more of Millenials polled.
Gen Z and Millenial voters sided with Biden by a nearly 20-point margin in 2020, and Trump only lost five key states by less than 100,000 votes.
As a recent analysis from Split Ticket demonstrated, a pollster's methodology and how it weighs a survey's results can lead to wildly different results. For example, while a survey using live text interviews showed young voters preferring Biden over Trump by 10 percentage points, one done using an online opt-in panel resulted in Trump winning over the age group.
If results from Marist, Siena College, and others prove accurate, it'll be a massive blow to Biden's reelection chances. Still, his campaign can rest somewhat easier knowing younger voters have historically been some of the least likely to make it to the polls.
Data compiled by the University of Florida Election Lab shows that since 1986, more than 50% of voting-aged Americans between 45 and 59 and more than 64% of those 60 or older have participated in presidential elections. But over the past 34 years, voters between the ages of 18 and 29 managed to breach the 50% mark only once, in 2020.
If the younger electorate this election has become more red-leaning, it's tough to assign much credit to state-run Republican Parties. Several have passed legislation in recent years restricting which documents can be used for identification on election day, potentially hampering the influence of young voters.
For example, after turnout from voters aged 18 and 19 surged 81% between 2018 and 2022, Idaho prohibited college IDs as a form of identification at polling stations. A proposed piece of legislation in Texas in 2023 also attempted to ban polling stations on college campuses, though the bill never got past committee.
Appealing to younger voters in college towns and campuses may also take a mental adjustment from some conservative influencers and leaders, like Turning Point USA founder and executive director Charlie Kirk. In 2020, he reportedly told a group of GOP activists and donors it was "a great thing" when colleges shut down their campuses amid the pandemic as it would hurt Democrats.