JPMorgan drops its recession call for the first half and now sees a 55% chance of a soft landing for the global economy

• JPMorgan scrapped its recession forecast for the first half of 2024 and now sees 55% odds of a soft landing.
• The bank sees a 30% chance that global expansion persists without major policy easing. 
• Recent positive developments challenge the notion that higher rates are squeezing the economy. 

JPMorgan has backed off from its recession forecast for the first half of 2024 and says it now sees a 55% chance of a "soft landing" for the global economy through late next year. 

A note written by Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton on Tuesday said that "surprising positive developments related to balance sheets, US supply-side performance, and global financial conditions challenge the view that higher rates are "boiling the frog" when it comes to economic growth.