Layoffs could spike as one labor-market indicator says a recession is already here, market forecaster says

• The US may already be in a recession, according to Danielle DiMartino Booth.
• A steady rise in the unemployment rate above cycle lows signals a recession, she said. 
• Other forecasters have said the unemployment rate could reach 5% by year-end. 

The US could see a rise in layoffs, and there's one indicator in the labor market that suggests a recession is already here, according to veteran market forecaster Danielle DiMartino Booth.

The Quill Intelligence Research chief strategist pointed to worrying signs in the labor market, despite headline job growth remaining strong. The economy added 303,000 workers in March — but the jobless rate has steadily ticked higher, rising from a low of 3.4% in April 2023 to around 3.8% last month.