Reuters/Alexei Druzhinin/RIA Novosti/Kremlin
- Russia's growing partnership with China isn't going to fade, a think-tank director said.
- That's because Moscow's alliance with Beijing checks off three big goals for Putin.
- The West should consider enforcing economic sanctions on China as well, he said.
Russia's no-limits partnership with China is here to stay, as tying Moscow's economy to Beijing's is the only option Vladimir Putin has to sustain his war and his antagonism toward the West, according to Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
In an op-ed for Foreign Affairs, the think-tank director pointed to Russia and China's economies becoming increasingly intertwined since Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The two nations scaled up their trade partnership to a record $240 billion last year, partly because China has snapped up key Russian commodities while the West has shunned trade with Moscow. Meanwhile, Russia has bought up huge amounts of Chinese goods as it becomes increasingly isolated from the global economy.
Russia is keen to keep its alliance with China, Gabuev said, as the partnership "emphatically" helps Russia with three of its goals: helping it win its war against Ukraine, helping its ailing economy, and helping the nation push back against the West for its support for Ukraine.
Those are key incentives for Russia to continue its partnership with China, even as Beijing appears to be holding an advantage over Moscow as a trade partner. Its economy is larger and still maintaining a connection with the West, while some Russian trade is struggling under Western sanctions.
"Russia is now locking itself into vassalage to China," Gabuev said. "A couple years down the road, Beijing will be more able to dictate the terms of the economic, technological, and regional cooperation with Moscow. The Kremlin is not blind to this prospect, but it does not have much choice as long as Putin needs Chinese support to fight his war in Ukraine, which has become an obsession."
A lasting partnership between Moscow and Beijing suggests that the West needs to consider enforcing economic sanctions on China similar those imposed on Russia, Gabuev added. He noted that the current situation differed from the past when the US was able to step in and offer China strategic deals during the Cold War.
"Indeed, the deepening of this partnership is one of the most consequential results of the Ukrainian tragedy. Moscow and Beijing may never sign a formal alliance, but the evolution of their relationship in the years ahead will increasingly affect the world and challenge the West," he said. "US officials cannot extend a deal ... to either Moscow or Beijing at this point. Any hopes of peeling them away from each other are nothing more than wishful thinking," Gabuev added.
Other political affairs experts have also noted potential risks stemming from Russia and China's growing ties, especially amid rising geopolitical concerns around the world.
An alliance between China, Russia, and North Korea could pose a "significant threat" to the world's financial system and security, Bruce Klingner, a research fellow for a Washington, DC-based think-tank wrote in a recent note.