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- For Ukraine to survive, it must keep Russia's larger forces off-balance.
- Ukraine must seize back initiative and shift to a new strategy or it risks defeat, an expert warns.
- "Ukraine has to go on the offensive," ISW's Russia expert George Barros said.
Victory in the Ukraine war may come down to a simple question: which side has the initiative?
If Russia can retain the initiative, it can launch constant offensives with its larger forces that will drive Ukrainian defenders to the breaking point. For Ukraine, gaining the initiative has become existential: it has to keep Russia off balance, or its forces will be worn down responding to Russian offensives.